Recently I read an article which talks about a study done on decision making. "Almost all managers look for data while trying to arrive at a decision. But 90% of them discard what the data tells them and they go by their gut-feel" !
As usual, I didn't pay much attention to this, thinking that this is another useless study done to arrive at equally useless conclusions. But then, I thought it would be nice to analyze a bit on decision making process.
Whenever I take a flight, I get this odd feeling. Especially after the karma of fastening the seat belt, take off, necessary turbulence and when the aircraft start cruising at 30000+ feet high. That is the time I get relaxed to think of unnecessary things. My feelings will pour in then. Looking down through the window, which always will be some ocean or other, I start thinking "will the pilot take us safely to the destination?" "will the aircraft explode at this height?( as if a few thousand feet below would make any difference !) " "will the pilot suddenly take a turn to up-north instead of towards west, intentionally or forcefully" "what are my chances of survival?". When these thoughts make me uncomfortable, I will decide to ditch this gut-feel and look for data. Last few months, thousands and thousands of aircraft completed the flights safely. So, my flight also will be safe. Why go to the past? I will look around to see the reactions of my co-passengers, all will be happily in to their own activities as if they were sitting in their living rooms ! That would confirm to me that I am safe too.
But, there are instances when I had to use my gut-feel !
I was a team lead of 7 software engineers, who use to code and test like me. At the end of the year, HR came up with guidelines to rate these people based on their performance to reward them. Those guidelines would be equally vague to arrive at any meaningful results. As such, all my team members used to come late like me, they used to complain to me when they were on bench, customers used to complain to me when they were not in bench ! They were equal in all terms, they used to code only because they did not have any thing better to do in life. All I did that time was use my gut-feel to rank them and identify top 20% in the list to drive the rest 80% in to various degrees of unhappiness !
There is some thing called "Confirmation bias" on which psychologists have done some research. That is what they usually do, when they get bored of no-work situation, not to get into any psychological problems these psychologists do some research and publish weird theories. According to them, we all have confirmation bias towards a favorable situation, and we try to look at only that data that confirms our bias.
Suppose a scandal or bad news on a politician breaks out in media. ( If the politician had "guts"then there is no question of such report appearing in the media irrespective of whether it is true or not ). If you like that politician, you will not read that article fully, you would say it is media creation. If you don't like that politician, then you will read it a few times, read it out to your friends too. You will thank the media to bring out such atrocities. And then you tend to confirm your opinion on that person.
I never thought I am such "confirmation biased" person until I quit my second job ! As usual, I was on notice period, the period in which I had been noticed much more than any other period in that company. "Best of luck", "Excellent decision", "You will do well" - wishes were poured in from many people. It is true that you have a huge number of well wishers when you quit a company, than those during initial days there. All of them want you do well in some other company, not here !!!
Strangely, my boss and his boss wanted to retain me. So, I was asked to meet my "super boss". I was preoccupied and decided that I will be closed to any of his questions, my only answer would be "I want to leave". I was successful, but one question-answer by himself opened my eyes. "Have you consulted with anybody about your decision ? I am sure you would have discussed with only those people who would respond the way you like to hear ". He was dead right ! As such, I was not too sure what I would do in the new company, all I knew was the salary was much better. All I had was a gut feel that the new company would be good for me. I didn't want to corrupt my gut-feel by talking to someone who could potentially seed a doubt or two in my mind !
I am not a big fan of Sharukh Khan and his movies. I know I am not alone. But I also know there are many who like/love him and his movies. So when the news break out that his movie collected crores and crores in the box-office, when good reviews and reviews keep appearing on news papers on his movie - I will frantically look for that review by that odd critic, who never gives good feedback on any thing in this world. I will preserve that super negative article to show to my wife, when she asks my opinion on going for that movie !
Yes, taking decisions on gut-feel is at times good. It speeds up your decision making process. It gives you a kick and rewards you well if the decision turns out to be right. Otherwise, you would get kicked out - by people who will show enough data to prove as why they are doing that to you !
Also, try to reduce your "confirmation bias" attitude. Else, you would miss watching Deepika Padukone in Chennai Express !!!!!
As usual, I didn't pay much attention to this, thinking that this is another useless study done to arrive at equally useless conclusions. But then, I thought it would be nice to analyze a bit on decision making process.
Whenever I take a flight, I get this odd feeling. Especially after the karma of fastening the seat belt, take off, necessary turbulence and when the aircraft start cruising at 30000+ feet high. That is the time I get relaxed to think of unnecessary things. My feelings will pour in then. Looking down through the window, which always will be some ocean or other, I start thinking "will the pilot take us safely to the destination?" "will the aircraft explode at this height?( as if a few thousand feet below would make any difference !) " "will the pilot suddenly take a turn to up-north instead of towards west, intentionally or forcefully" "what are my chances of survival?". When these thoughts make me uncomfortable, I will decide to ditch this gut-feel and look for data. Last few months, thousands and thousands of aircraft completed the flights safely. So, my flight also will be safe. Why go to the past? I will look around to see the reactions of my co-passengers, all will be happily in to their own activities as if they were sitting in their living rooms ! That would confirm to me that I am safe too.
But, there are instances when I had to use my gut-feel !
I was a team lead of 7 software engineers, who use to code and test like me. At the end of the year, HR came up with guidelines to rate these people based on their performance to reward them. Those guidelines would be equally vague to arrive at any meaningful results. As such, all my team members used to come late like me, they used to complain to me when they were on bench, customers used to complain to me when they were not in bench ! They were equal in all terms, they used to code only because they did not have any thing better to do in life. All I did that time was use my gut-feel to rank them and identify top 20% in the list to drive the rest 80% in to various degrees of unhappiness !
There is some thing called "Confirmation bias" on which psychologists have done some research. That is what they usually do, when they get bored of no-work situation, not to get into any psychological problems these psychologists do some research and publish weird theories. According to them, we all have confirmation bias towards a favorable situation, and we try to look at only that data that confirms our bias.
Suppose a scandal or bad news on a politician breaks out in media. ( If the politician had "guts"then there is no question of such report appearing in the media irrespective of whether it is true or not ). If you like that politician, you will not read that article fully, you would say it is media creation. If you don't like that politician, then you will read it a few times, read it out to your friends too. You will thank the media to bring out such atrocities. And then you tend to confirm your opinion on that person.
I never thought I am such "confirmation biased" person until I quit my second job ! As usual, I was on notice period, the period in which I had been noticed much more than any other period in that company. "Best of luck", "Excellent decision", "You will do well" - wishes were poured in from many people. It is true that you have a huge number of well wishers when you quit a company, than those during initial days there. All of them want you do well in some other company, not here !!!
Strangely, my boss and his boss wanted to retain me. So, I was asked to meet my "super boss". I was preoccupied and decided that I will be closed to any of his questions, my only answer would be "I want to leave". I was successful, but one question-answer by himself opened my eyes. "Have you consulted with anybody about your decision ? I am sure you would have discussed with only those people who would respond the way you like to hear ". He was dead right ! As such, I was not too sure what I would do in the new company, all I knew was the salary was much better. All I had was a gut feel that the new company would be good for me. I didn't want to corrupt my gut-feel by talking to someone who could potentially seed a doubt or two in my mind !
I am not a big fan of Sharukh Khan and his movies. I know I am not alone. But I also know there are many who like/love him and his movies. So when the news break out that his movie collected crores and crores in the box-office, when good reviews and reviews keep appearing on news papers on his movie - I will frantically look for that review by that odd critic, who never gives good feedback on any thing in this world. I will preserve that super negative article to show to my wife, when she asks my opinion on going for that movie !
Yes, taking decisions on gut-feel is at times good. It speeds up your decision making process. It gives you a kick and rewards you well if the decision turns out to be right. Otherwise, you would get kicked out - by people who will show enough data to prove as why they are doing that to you !
Also, try to reduce your "confirmation bias" attitude. Else, you would miss watching Deepika Padukone in Chennai Express !!!!!
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